Arbeitspapier
Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from an European perspective
In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One explanatory variable for variations in predictive success of the German stock markets relative to the polls is market efficiency. Even though the overall predictions of the political stock markets are quite reliable on the aggregate level we find systematic prediction errors on the contract level that can be attributed to the vote share size and to individual trader biases.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics ; No. 05/01
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Field Experiments
Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- Subject
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political stock markets
forecasting
market efficiency
proportional representation
Wahlverhalten
Prognoseverfahren
Börse
Effizienzmarktthese
Deutschland
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Berlemann, Michael
Schmidt, Carsten
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Technische Universität Dresden, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften
- (where)
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Dresden
- (when)
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2001
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Berlemann, Michael
- Schmidt, Carsten
- Technische Universität Dresden, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Time of origin
- 2001
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