Arbeitspapier
Predictive accuracy of political stock markets: Empirical evidence from a European perspective
In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One explanatory variable for variations in predictive success of the German stock markets relative to the polls is market efficiency. Even though the overall predictions of the political stock markets are quite reliable on the aggregate level we find systematic prediction errors on the contract level that can be attributed to the vote share size and to individual trader biases.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: SFB 373 Discussion Paper ; No. 2001,57
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Field Experiments
Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- Thema
-
market efficiency
forecasting
political stock markets
proportional representation
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Berlemann, Michael
Schmidt, Carsten
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes
- (wo)
-
Berlin
- (wann)
-
2001
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-10050132
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Berlemann, Michael
- Schmidt, Carsten
- Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes
Entstanden
- 2001
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