Arbeitspapier

Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market

Forecasts of macroeconomic variables as the inflation rate serve as important guidelines for the private as well as the public sector. At least central banks that adopted an inflation targeting regime are in urgent need of high quality inflation forecasts. Accurate inflation forecasts are also needed within private sector wage negotiations. In this paper we present a new method to predict future inflation via conducting electronic markets. We show at the example of a prototype market how the market data of such an experimental market can be used to generate predictions of the future inflation rate. We also show that the market data provide important evidence on the distribution of inflation expectations.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics ; No. 06/01

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Field Experiments
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Thema
Inflation Forcasting
Inflation Targeting
Electronic Markets
Inflationsrate
Prognoseverfahren
Marktmechanismus
Test
E-Business
Theorie

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Berlemann, Michael
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Technische Universität Dresden, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften
(wo)
Dresden
(wann)
2001

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
20.09.2024, 08:23 MESZ

Datenpartner

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Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Berlemann, Michael
  • Technische Universität Dresden, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften

Entstanden

  • 2001

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