Arbeitspapier
Forecasting Inflation via Experimental Stock Markets: Some Results from Pilot Markets
While there are various techniques of inflation forecasting in use, none of them has proved to deliver consistently more accurate forecasts than the others. That is why most users of inflation forecasts monitor a variety of inflation indicators and forecasts and check them for consistency. This paper aims at contributing to an extension of themethods in use. We propose to conduct experimental inflation forecasting markets in order to uncover market participants' inflation expectations. While the markets directly deliver density forecasts of inflation they also allow to construct mean forecasts and a measure of forecast uncertainty. We also present evidence from a number of pilot markets underlining that the proposed method might enrich the arsenal of existing forecastingtechniques.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ifo Working Paper ; No. 10
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Central Banks and Their Policies
Economic Integration
International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- Thema
-
Inflation forecast
field experiments
experimental stock markets
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Berlemann, Michael
Nelson, Forrest
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich
- (wo)
-
Munich
- (wann)
-
2005
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Berlemann, Michael
- Nelson, Forrest
- ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich
Entstanden
- 2005
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