Arbeitspapier
Intraday Stock Price Dependence using Dynamic Discrete Copula Distributions
We investigate the intraday dependence pattern between tick data of stock price changes using a new time-varying model for discrete copulas. We let parameters of both the marginal models and the copula vary over time using an observation driven autoregressive updating scheme based on the score of the conditional probability mass function with respect to the time-varying parameters. We apply the model to high-frequency stock price changes expressed as discrete tick-size multiples for four liquid U.S. financial stocks. Our modeling framework is based on Skellam densities for the marginals and a range of different copula functions. We find evidence of intraday time-variation in the dependence structure. After the opening and before the close of the stock market, dependence levels are lower. We attribute this finding to more idiosyncratic trading at these times. The introduction of score driven dynamics in the dependence structure significantly increases the likelihood values of the time-varying copula model. By contrast, a fixed daily seasonal dependence pattern clearly fits the data less well.
- Sprache
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Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 15-037/III/DSF90
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- Thema
-
time-varying copulas
dynamic discrete data
score driven models
Skellam distribution
dynamic dependence
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Koopman, Siem Jan
Lit, Rutger
Lucas, André
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Tinbergen Institute
- (wo)
-
Amsterdam and Rotterdam
- (wann)
-
2015
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Koopman, Siem Jan
- Lit, Rutger
- Lucas, André
- Tinbergen Institute
Entstanden
- 2015
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