Beta observation-driven models with exogenous regressors: a joint analysis of realized correlation and leverage effects

Arbeitspapier

We consider a general class of observation-driven models with exogenous regressors for double bounded data that are based on the beta distribution. We obtain a stationary and ergodic beta observation-driven process subject to a contraction condition on the stochastic dynamic model equation. We derive conditions for strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. The general results are used to study the properties of a beta autoregressive process with threshold effects and to establish the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator. We employ the threshold autoregressive model with leverage effects to analyze realized correlations for several sets of stock returns. We find that the impact of past values of realized correlation on future values is at least 10% higher when stock returns are negative rather than positive. This finding supports the conjecture that correlation between stock returns tends to be higher when stock prices are falling, and lower when there is a surge in stock prices. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample study that shows that our model with leverage effects can enhance the accuracy of point and density forecasts of realized correlations.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. TI 2020-004/III

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection ; Financial Econometrics
• Thema: Double bounded time series ; financial econometrics ; leverage effects ; observation- driven models ; realized correlation

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Gorgi, Paolo ; Koopman, Siem Jan
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Tinbergen Institute
• (wo): Amsterdam and Rotterdam
• (wann): 2020

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/220041
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ