Arbeitspapier
Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations
Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the in- ation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. From a theoretical viewpoint, the measure can be motivated as the entropy function of a strictly proper scoring rule. We demonstrate the measure's good performance in a simulation study based on empirical data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Discussion Paper Series ; No. 664
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
uncertainty
inflation
economic expectations
probabilistic forecasting
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Krüger, Fabian
Pavlova, Lora
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
- (wo)
-
Heidelberg
- (wann)
-
2019
- DOI
-
doi:10.11588/heidok.00026507
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-265072
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Krüger, Fabian
- Pavlova, Lora
- University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
Entstanden
- 2019
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