Economic uncertainty and subjective inflation expectations

Arbeitspapier

Measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for understanding investment decisions by individuals and firms. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This paper uses the panel dimension of household surveys to study individual-level heterogeneity in this measure of individual uncertainty. The results provide evidence for the existence of considerable heterogeneity in individuals' response behavior and inflation expectations.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Discussion Paper ; No. 160

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General ; Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General ; Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness ; Expectations; Speculations ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
• Thema: Uncertainty ; inflation ; expectations ; mixture models

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Rossmann, Tobias
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München und Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition
• (wo): München und Berlin
• (wann): 2019

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/208060
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ