Arbeitspapier
Quantifying Subjective Uncertainty in Survey Expectations
Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the inflation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is robust, trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. These advantages are particularly relevant when analyzing large scale consumer surveys. We illustrate the new measure using data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" ; No. 14
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
- Thema
-
Inflationserwartung
Verbraucher
Risiko
Befragung
Deutschland
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Krüger, Fabian
Pavlova, Lora
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Humboldt University Berlin
- (wo)
-
Berlin
- (wann)
-
2020
- DOI
-
doi:10.18452/21401
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:kobv:11-110-18452/22190-1
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Krüger, Fabian
- Pavlova, Lora
- Humboldt University Berlin
Entstanden
- 2020
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