Arbeitspapier
Survey expectations
This paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focuses on average expectations rather than individual expectations is advanced. Other models of expectations formation, such as the adaptive expectations hypothesis, are briefly discussed. Testable implications of rational and extrapolative models of expectations are reviewed and the importance of the loss function for the interpretation of the test results is discussed. The paper then provides an account of the various surveys of expectations, reviews alternative methods of quantifying the qualitative surveys, and discusses the use of aggregate and individual survey responses in the analysis of expectations and for forecasting.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 1599
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Econometric Modeling: General
Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics: General
Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs: General
- Thema
-
models of expectations formation
survey data
heterogeneity
tests of rational expectations
Rationale Erwartung
Erwartungstheorie
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem
Weale, Martin R.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (wo)
-
Munich
- (wann)
-
2005
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem
- Weale, Martin R.
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Entstanden
- 2005
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