Arbeitspapier
Using survey data on inflation expectations in the estimation of learning and rational expectations models
Do survey data on inflation expectations contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? I address this question by using survey data in the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters (2007) to estimate and compare its performance when solved under the assumptions of Rational Expectations and learning. This information serves as an additional moment restriction and helps to determine the forecasting model for inflation that agents use under learning. My results reveal that the predictive power of this model is improved when using both survey data and an admissible learning rule for the formation of inflation expectations.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 3552
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Bayesian Analysis: General
Expectations; Speculations
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Monetary Policy
- Thema
-
survey data
learning models
inflation expectations
Bayesian econometrics
Inflationserwartung
Rationale Erwartung
Lernprozess
Neukeynesianische Makroökonomik
Ökonometrisches Makromodell
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Ormeño, Arturo
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (wo)
-
Munich
- (wann)
-
2011
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Ormeño, Arturo
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Entstanden
- 2011
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Estimation of Macroeconometric Models Under Rational Expectations: A Survey
Real expectations: Replacing rational expectations with survey expectations in dynamic macro models
Rational Expectations
Stabilization policy, rational expectations and price-level versus inflation targeting: a survey
Survey expectations
Anchored inflation expectations
Updating inflation expectations
Updating inflation expectations
A new perspective to rational expectations: Maximin rational expectations equilibrium
Do survey-based expectations mimic inflation in Nigeria?
Inflation expectations in the Euro area: are consumers rational?
Inflation expectations in the Euro area: are consumers rational?
Estimation of Macroeconometric Models Under Rational Expectations: A Survey
Real expectations: Replacing rational expectations with survey expectations in dynamic macro models
Rational Expectations
Stabilization policy, rational expectations and price-level versus inflation targeting: a survey
Survey expectations
Anchored inflation expectations
Updating inflation expectations
Updating inflation expectations
A new perspective to rational expectations: Maximin rational expectations equilibrium
Do survey-based expectations mimic inflation in Nigeria?
Inflation expectations in the Euro area: are consumers rational?
Inflation expectations in the Euro area: are consumers rational?
Estimation of Macroeconometric Models Under Rational Expectations: A Survey
Real expectations: Replacing rational expectations with survey expectations in dynamic macro models
Rational Expectations
Stabilization policy, rational expectations and price-level versus inflation targeting: a survey
Survey expectations
Anchored inflation expectations
Updating inflation expectations
Updating inflation expectations
A new perspective to rational expectations: Maximin rational expectations equilibrium
Do survey-based expectations mimic inflation in Nigeria?
Inflation expectations in the Euro area: are consumers rational?