Anchored inflation expectations

Arbeitspapier

We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in in ation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of in ation and in ation expectations for the United States and other countries over the post-war period. In our theory long-run in ation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run in ation surprises, in a way that depends on recent forecasting performance and monetary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explanations of low-frequency properties of in ation. The model, estimated using only in ation and short-term forecasts from professional surveys, accurately predicts observed measures of long-term in ation expectations and identifies episodes of unanchored expectations.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Texto para discussão ; No. 689

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness ; Expectations; Speculations
• Thema: Anchored expectations ; ination expectations ; survey data

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Viana de Carvalho, Carlos ; Eusepi, Stefano ; Mönch, Emanuel ; Preston, Bruce
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), Departamento de Economia
• (wo): Rio de Janeiro
• (wann): 2021

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/249737
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ