Artikel

Do survey-based expectations mimic inflation in Nigeria?

zu Verbundenen Objekten

Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as well as the relationship between BES indicators and selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. The study employed the modified Kaminsky-Reinhart (KLR) Signal Approach, correlation and trend analyses. The results of the modified KLR approach showed that BES inflation index predicts inflation rate only between 5 to 20 per cent threshold, which corresponds with Nigeria inflation series covered by the study. The paper found a weak and statistically insignificant relationship between the BES indicators and the selected macroeconomic indicators (inflation rate, exchange rate and lending rate). The study recommended that BES confidence indicators should be employed with some level of caution in making decision since the precision of its predictive ability is only moderate.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Journal: CBN Journal of Applied Statistics ; ISSN: 2476-8472 ; Volume: 06 ; Year: 2015 ; Issue: 1 ; Pages: 301-315 ; Abuja: The Central Bank of Nigeria

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Expectations; Speculations
Thema
Business Confidence
expectations survey
forecasting
inflation

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Ibrahim, Adamu
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
The Central Bank of Nigeria
(wo)
Abuja
(wann)
2015

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Original beim Datenpartner anzeigen

Objekttyp

  • Artikel

Beteiligte

  • Ibrahim, Adamu
  • The Central Bank of Nigeria

Entstanden

  • 2015

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