Arbeitspapier
Quantifying subjective uncertainty in survey expectations
Several recent surveys ask for a person's subjective probabilities that the in- ation rate falls into various outcome ranges. We provide a new measure of the uncertainty implicit in such probabilities. The measure has several advantages over existing methods: It is trivial to implement, requires no functional form assumptions, and is well-defined for all logically possible probabilities. From a theoretical viewpoint, the measure can be motivated as the entropy function of a strictly proper scoring rule. We demonstrate the measure's good performance in a simulation study based on empirical data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Discussion Paper Series ; No. 664
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
- Subject
-
uncertainty
inflation
economic expectations
probabilistic forecasting
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Krüger, Fabian
Pavlova, Lora
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
- (where)
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Heidelberg
- (when)
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2019
- DOI
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doi:10.11588/heidok.00026507
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-265072
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Krüger, Fabian
- Pavlova, Lora
- University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
Time of origin
- 2019
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