Artikel
Forecasting commodity prices using the term structure
The aim of this study is to test the ability of the yield curve on US government bonds to forecast the future evolution in the prices of commodities often used in as raw materials. We consider the monthly prices of nine commodities for more than 30 years. Our findings, confirmed by several parametric and non-parametric tests, are robust and indicate that the ability to forecast future performance changes over time. Specifically, between 1986 and the early 2000s the yield curve was quite successful in forecasting monthly changes in commodity prices, but that success diminished in the period following. One possible explanation for this outcome is the increased flow of capital into the commodity market resulting in stronger correlations with the equity markets and a breakdown of the obvious relationship between commodities and business cycle. Our findings are important for asset pricing, commodity traders and policy makers.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Journal: Journal of Risk and Financial Management ; ISSN: 1911-8074 ; Volume: 14 ; Year: 2021 ; Issue: 12 ; Pages: 1-39 ; Basel: MDPI
- Klassifikation
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Wirtschaft
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Commodity Markets
- Thema
-
forecasting
commodity market
metals
term structure
yield spread
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
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Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen
Qadan, Mahmoud
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
MDPI
- (wo)
-
Basel
- (wann)
-
2021
- DOI
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doi:10.3390/jrfm14120585
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Artikel
Beteiligte
- Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen
- Qadan, Mahmoud
- MDPI
Entstanden
- 2021
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