Arbeitspapier
Specification Testing in Hawkes Models
We propose various specification tests for Hawkes models based on the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) principle. Hawkes models can be used to model the occurrence of extreme events in financial markets. Our specific testing focus is on extending a univariate model to a multivariate model, that is, we examine whether there is a conditional dependence between extreme events in markets. Simulations show that the test has good size and power, in particular for sample sizes that are typically encountered in practice. Applying the specification test for dependence to US stocks, bonds and exchange rate data, we find strong evidence for cross-excitation within segments as well as between segments. Therefore, we recommend that univariate Hawkes models be extended to account for the cross-triggering phenomenon.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 15-086/III
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Hypothesis Testing: General
Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- Thema
-
Hawkes processes
specification tests
extremal dependence
financial crashes
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Gresnigt, Francine
Kole, Erik
Franses, Philip Hans
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Tinbergen Institute
- (wo)
-
Amsterdam and Rotterdam
- (wann)
-
2015
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
17.04.2025, 15:30 MESZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Gresnigt, Francine
- Kole, Erik
- Franses, Philip Hans
- Tinbergen Institute
Entstanden
- 2015
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