Arbeitspapier

The Origin of Prospect Theory, or Testing the Intuitive Statistician

The origin of prospect theory is the desire to test the intuitive statistician in the real world. The development of this theory by the cognitive psychologists Kahneman and Tversky can be traced to the former's work in cognitive psychophysics, in which deviations from average behavior are termed (statistical) errors; and the latter's work on decision theory, with its normative vs. descriptive framework. The combination of these two types of probabilistic psychology culminated in a new descriptive theory of human decision making in the real world, coined Heuristics and Biases. The 1979 Econometrica article applies this new descriptive theory to economists' EUT. It equates the intuitive statistician with the rational economic man and shows how it descriptively fails.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper ; No. 05-111/2

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
History of Economic Thought: Individuals
Economic Methodology
Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
Thema
Kahneman and Tversky
Prospect Theory
Intuitive Statistician
Heuristics and Biases

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Heukelom, Floris
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Tinbergen Institute
(wo)
Amsterdam and Rotterdam
(wann)
2005

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Heukelom, Floris
  • Tinbergen Institute

Entstanden

  • 2005

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