Arbeitspapier
Predicting Germany's recessions with leading indicators: Evidence from probit models
Probit models are employed to evaluate leading indicators for Germany's recessions. The predictive power of leading indicators is found to be lower than assumed in previous studies. Although, monetary variables provide the best predictive power for recessions, survey data and order inflows show a lag rather than a lead to the recession time series. US interest rates have also some information content with respect to the German cycle. Constructing a model with a set of variables to predict recessions does not help to improve the forecasts. The out-of-sample performance of the indicators appeals to be even worse.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Year: 1999 ; Kiel: Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW)
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- Thema
-
Leading indicators
business cycles
probit models
Konjunkturindikator
Konjunkturprognose
Prognoseverfahren
Mikroökonometrie
Schätzung
Theorie
Deutschland
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Döpke, Jörg
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW)
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
- (wo)
-
Kiel
- (wann)
-
1999
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Döpke, Jörg
- Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW)
- ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Entstanden
- 1999
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