Arbeitspapier
Macroeconomic Forecasts and the Nature of Economic Shocks in Germany
The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to identify the shocks underlying the business cycle. It is tested whether these shocks can explain the forecast errors. The empirical results suggest that, in general, the shocks are helpful in explaining the forecast errors. However, the correlations are rather weak. In addition, lagged shocks help also to explain the mispredictions of the institutes. Thus, forecasters' expectations are not rational.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Kiel Working Paper ; No. 972
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Thema
-
Forecast error evaluation
Structural VARs
Business cycles
Konjunkturprognose
Prognoseverfahren
Makroökonomik
Schock
Konjunktur
Schätzung
Deutschland
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Döpke, Jörg
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW)
- (wo)
-
Kiel
- (wann)
-
2000
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Döpke, Jörg
- Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW)
Entstanden
- 2000
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