Arbeitspapier

The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval: A survey

Even after four decades of research it remains unclear, whether presidential popularity depends on the state of the economy. While about half of all studies for the United States find a significant effect of unemployment and inflation on presidential popularity, the others do not. Additional economic issues have rarely been studied. In this survey article we study the likely causes for the inconclusive findings. While various factors have an influence on the results, especially the choice of the sample period is of crucial importance. While in the very long run we find unemployment, inflation and the budget deficit to have a robust effect on presidential approval, this holds not true for shorter sub-periods. This result might indicate that the popularity function is instable over time. However, the findings might also be taken as an indication that the most often employed linear estimation approach is inadequate. Further research on these issues is necessary.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 3761

Classification
Wirtschaft
Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
Subject
presidential popularity
approval
unemployment
inflation
Staatsoberhaupt
Öffentliche Meinung
Wirtschaftslage
Arbeitslosigkeit
Inflation
USA

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Berlemann, Michael
Enkelmann, Sören
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
(where)
Munich
(when)
2012

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Berlemann, Michael
  • Enkelmann, Sören
  • Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)

Time of origin

  • 2012

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