Unraveling the relationship between presidential approval and the economy: A multi-dimensional semi-parametric approach

Arbeitspapier

Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of U.S. presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semi-parametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible non-linear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation, and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of non-parametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Working Paper Series in Economics ; No. 273

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes ; Quantitative Policy Modeling ; Institutions and the Macroeconomy ; Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
• Thema: presidential popularity ; macroeconomy ; semi-parametric regression ; penalized splines

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Berlemann, Michael ; Enkelmann, Soeren ; Kuhlenkasper, Torben
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre
• (wo): Lüneburg
• (wann): 2013

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/73162
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ