Arbeitspapier
Geography or skills: What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?
The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the best and worst-performers across the sample. This heterogeneity is found to be related to both the skills of analysts – such as their educational and employment backgrounds – and to geography. In particular, there is evidence that forecasters located in regions which experience more idiosyncratic economic conditions perform worse in anticipating monetary policy. Moreover, systematic forecaster heterogeneity is economically important as it leads to greater financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, Fed communication may exert an influence on forecast accuracy.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 695
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Monetary Policy
Central Banks and Their Policies
Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- Thema
-
communication
Federal Reserve
FOMC
forecast
geography
heterogeneity
monetary policy
skills
survey data
United States
Geldpolitik
Zentralbank
Ökonomen
Frühindikator
Bewertung
USA
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Berger, Helge
Ehrmann, Michael
Fratzscher, Marcel
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2006
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Berger, Helge
- Ehrmann, Michael
- Fratzscher, Marcel
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Entstanden
- 2006
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