Arbeitspapier
News or animal spirits? Consumer confidence and economic activity: Redux
Barsky and Sims (2012, AER) demonstrated, via indirect inference, that confidence innovations can be viewed as noisy signals about medium-term economic growth. They highlighted that the connection between confidence and subsequent activity, such as consumption and output, is primarily driven by news shocks about the future. We expand upon their research in two significant ways. First, we incorporate the Great Recession and ZLB episodes, and second, we employ unique state-level data to offer insights into how to interpret the relationship between consumer confidence and economic activity. Our results confirm the main finding of Barsky and Sims (2012) that this relationship is predominantly driven by news about the future.
- ISBN
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978-952-323-437-6
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers ; No. 8/2023
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Macro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy‡
- Subject
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Consumer confidence
news
animal spirits
Great Recession
state-level analysis
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Choi, Sangyyup
Jeong, Jaehun
Park, Dohyeon
Yoo, Donghoon
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Bank of Finland
- (where)
-
Helsinki
- (when)
-
2023
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Choi, Sangyyup
- Jeong, Jaehun
- Park, Dohyeon
- Yoo, Donghoon
- Bank of Finland
Time of origin
- 2023
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