Arbeitspapier
The expectations-driven US current account
Since 1991, survey expectations of long-run output growth for the U.S. relative to the rest of the world exhibit a pattern strikingly similar to that of the U.S. current account, and thus also to global imbalances. We show that this finding can to a large extent be rationalized in a two-region stochastic growth model simulated using expected trend growth filtered from observed productivity. In line with the intertemporal approach to the current account, a major part of the buildup of the U.S. current account deficit appears to be driven by the optimal response of households and firms to improved growth prospects.
- ISBN
-
978-3-86558-898-2
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Bundesbank Discussion Paper ; No. 10/2013
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General
- Thema
-
open economy
stochastic trend growth
Kalman filter
news shocks
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Hoffmann, Mathias
Krause, Michael U.
Laubach, Thomas
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Deutsche Bundesbank
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2013
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Hoffmann, Mathias
- Krause, Michael U.
- Laubach, Thomas
- Deutsche Bundesbank
Entstanden
- 2013
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