When old meets young? Germany's population ageing and the current account

Arbeitspapier

In a three-region New Keynesian life-cycle model calibrated to Germany, the Euro area (without Germany) and the rest of the world, we analyze the impact of population ageing on net foreign asset and current account developments. Using unsynchronized demographic trends by taking those of Germany as given and assuming constant population everywhere else, we are able to generate German current account surpluses of up to 15% of GDP during the first half of this century. However, projected demographic trends from 2000 to 2080 in OECD countries (and China in an additional analysis) are much more synchronized. Feeding these into our model suggests that the average annual German current account surplus from 2000 to 2018 that should be attributed to ageing reduces to around 2.83% (1.23%) of GDP, with a maximum at 4.3% (2.7%) in 2006 (when taking into account China), turning negative around 2035.

Angaben zum Objekt

• ISBN: 978-3-95729-624-5
• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper ; No. 33/2019

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects ; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy ; Monetary Policy ; Central Banks and Their Policies
• Thema: Population Ageing ; Net Foreign Assets ; Global Imbalances ; DSGE Models

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Schön, Matthias ; Stähler, Nikolai
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Deutsche Bundesbank
• (wo): Frankfurt a. M.
• (wann): 2019

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/204450
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ