Arbeitspapier

Heterogeneous expectations, learning and European inflation dynamics

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the performance of different learning rules in fitting survey data of household and expert inflation expectations in five core European economies (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain). Overall it is found that constant gain learning performs well in out-of-sample forecasting. It is also shown that households in high inflation countries are using higher best fitting constant gain parameters than those in low inflation countries. They are hence able to pick up structural changes faster. Professional forecasters update their information sets more frequently than households. Furthermore, household expectations in the Euro Area have not converged to the inflation goal of the ECB, which is to keep inflation below to but close to 2% in the medium run. This contrasts the findings for professional experts, which seem to be more inclined to incorporate the implications of monetary union for the convergence in inflation rates into their expectations.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Discussion Paper Series 1 ; No. 2007,16

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Expectations; Speculations
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Thema
Monetary policy
heterogeneous expectations
adaptive learning
survey expectations
Inflationserwartung
Erwartungstheorie
Lernprozess
Inflation Targeting
Inflationsrate
Inflationskonvergenz
Informationsverhalten
Schätzung
EU-Staaten
Deutschland
Spanien
Frankreich
Italien
Niederlande

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Weber, Anke
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Deutsche Bundesbank
(wo)
Frankfurt a. M.
(wann)
2007

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Weber, Anke
  • Deutsche Bundesbank

Entstanden

  • 2007

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