Konferenzbeitrag
Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors
In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a large data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a ?data-poor environment? at the sub-national level by complementing various regional indicators with more than 200 national and international ones. We calculate single?indicator, multi?indicator, pooled and factor forecasts in a pseudo real?time setting. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both for short and long term predictions. Furthermore, regional indicators play a crucial role for forecasting regional GDP. Keywords: regional forecasting, forecast combination, factor models, model confidence set, data?rich environment JEL Code: C32, C52, C53, E37, R11
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: 53rd Congress of the European Regional Science Association: "Regional Integration: Europe, the Mediterranean and the World Economy", 27-31 August 2013, Palermo, Italy
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
- Thema
-
LEADING INDICATORS
REGIONAL FORECASTING
FORECAST EVALUATION
FORECAST COMBINATION
DATA RICH ENVIRONMENT
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Lehmann, Robert
Wohlrabe, Klaus
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European Regional Science Association (ERSA)
- (wo)
-
Louvain-la-Neuve
- (wann)
-
2013
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Konferenzbeitrag
Beteiligte
- Lehmann, Robert
- Wohlrabe, Klaus
- European Regional Science Association (ERSA)
Entstanden
- 2013
Ähnliche Objekte (12)
Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors
Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors
Boosting and Regional Economic Forecasting: The Case of Germany
Regional Economic Forecasting: State-of-the-Art Methodology and Future Challenge
Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data
Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data
Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: Are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?
Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony
Sektorale Prognosen und deren Machbarkeit auf regionaler Ebene – Das Beispiel Sachsen
Boosting und die Prognose der deutschen Industrieproduktion: Was verrät uns der Blick in die Details?
Looking into the Black Box of Boosting: The Case of Germany
Die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts auf regionaler Ebene
Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors
Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors
Boosting and Regional Economic Forecasting: The Case of Germany
Regional Economic Forecasting: State-of-the-Art Methodology and Future Challenge
Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data
Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data
Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: Are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?
Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony
Sektorale Prognosen und deren Machbarkeit auf regionaler Ebene – Das Beispiel Sachsen
Boosting und die Prognose der deutschen Industrieproduktion: Was verrät uns der Blick in die Details?
Looking into the Black Box of Boosting: The Case of Germany
Die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts auf regionaler Ebene
Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors
Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors
Boosting and Regional Economic Forecasting: The Case of Germany
Regional Economic Forecasting: State-of-the-Art Methodology and Future Challenge
Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data
Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data
Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: Are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?
Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony
Sektorale Prognosen und deren Machbarkeit auf regionaler Ebene – Das Beispiel Sachsen
Boosting und die Prognose der deutschen Industrieproduktion: Was verrät uns der Blick in die Details?
Looking into the Black Box of Boosting: The Case of Germany