Arbeitspapier
Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors
In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a data-poor environment at the sub-national level by including more than 300 international, national and regional indicators. We calculate single-indicator, multi-indicator and pooled forecasts. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both for short- and long-term predictions. Furthermore, our best leading indicators describe the specific regional economic structure better than other indicators.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 3956
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
- Thema
-
leading indicators
regional forecasting
forecast evaluation
forecast combination
data rich environment
Konjunkturindikator
Konjunkturprognose
Regionaler Konjunkturzyklus
Teilstaat
Deutschland
Sachsen
Baden-Württemberg
Neue Bundesländer
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Lehmann, Robert
Wohlrabe, Klaus
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (wo)
-
Munich
- (wann)
-
2012
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Lehmann, Robert
- Wohlrabe, Klaus
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Entstanden
- 2012
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