Arbeitspapier
Looking into the Black Box of Boosting: The Case of Germany
This paper looks into the ’fine print’ of boosting for economic forecasting. By using German industrial production for the period from 1996 to 2014 and a data set consisting of 175 monthly indicators, we evaluate which indicators get selected by the boosting algorithm over time and four different forecasting horizons. It turns out that a number of hard indicators like turnovers, as well as a small number of survey results, get selected frequently by the algorithm and are therefore important to forecasting the performance of the German economy. However, there are indicators such as money supply that never get chosen by the boosting approach at all.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 5686
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Subject
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boosting
economic forecasting
industrial production
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Lehmann, Robert
Wohlrabe, Klaus
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (where)
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Munich
- (when)
-
2015
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Lehmann, Robert
- Wohlrabe, Klaus
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Time of origin
- 2015
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