Arbeitspapier
Instrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms: Unpacking the Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters
This paper shows that import exposure affects voting behavior because it affects local labor markets. We develop a new framework for mediation analysis where one instrumental variable is sufficient to identify three causal effects. Using German data from 1987–2009, we find that import exposure increases the support of nationalist parties and causes labor market turmoil. The voting response to import exposure can entirely be explained by the labor market adjustments to import exposure. Individual-level data corroborate our findings. Our novel estimation framework is applicable to a broad range of empirical studies interested in the causal mechanisms behind causal effects.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 6816
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
Economic Impacts of Globalization: General
Demand and Supply of Labor: General
- Subject
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instrumental variables
causal mediation analysis
import exposure
voting
local labor markets
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Dippel, Christian
Gold, Robert
Heblich, Stephan
Pinto, Rodrigo
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
- (where)
-
Munich
- (when)
-
2017
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Dippel, Christian
- Gold, Robert
- Heblich, Stephan
- Pinto, Rodrigo
- Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
Time of origin
- 2017
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