Konferenzbeitrag
Instrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms: Unpacking the Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters
We identify how German voters responded to the labor market turmoil caused by increasing trade with low-wage manufacturing countries. We first establish that import competition increased voters’ support for only extreme (right) parties. We then decompose this populist ‘total effect’ of trade on voting into a ‘mediated effect’ running through labor market adjustments and an independent ‘direct effect’. Our Causal Mediation Analysis reveals that direct and indirect effect work in opposite directions.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2017: Alternative Geld- und Finanzarchitekturen - Session: Voting ; No. C20-V1
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
Trade and Labor Market Interactions
- Event
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Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
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Gold, Robert
Dippel, Christian
Heblich, Stephan
Pinto, Rodrigo
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
- (where)
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Kiel, Hamburg
- (when)
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2017
- Handle
- Last update
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10.03.2025, 11:41 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Konferenzbeitrag
Associated
- Gold, Robert
- Dippel, Christian
- Heblich, Stephan
- Pinto, Rodrigo
- ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Time of origin
- 2017
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