Arbeitspapier
The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports
In this paper we provide evidence on the existence of short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the US and China. Based on a data set covering monthly product-level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period January 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation framework. Doing so, we (1) can confirm previous findings showing a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but (2) do not find evidence for significant short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries. This latter finding holds for product and country subgroups as well as for a variety of robustness checks.
- ISBN
-
978-92-899-4449-6
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 2503
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
Empirical Studies of Trade
Economic Impacts of Globalization: Microeconomic Impacts
- Thema
-
Tariffs
US imports
trade diversion
product-level data
difference-in-differences
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Cigna, Simone
Meinen, Philipp
Schulte, Patrick
Steinhoff, Nils
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2020
- DOI
-
doi:10.2866/512222
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Cigna, Simone
- Meinen, Philipp
- Schulte, Patrick
- Steinhoff, Nils
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Entstanden
- 2020
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