Arbeitspapier
The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?
In this paper we provide evidence on the existence of short-run trade diversion effects as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the US and China. Based on a data set covering monthly product-level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period January 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation framework. Doing so, we (1) can confirm previous findings showing a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but (2) do not find evidence for significant short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries. This latter finding holds for product and country subgroups as well as for a variety of robustness checks.
- ISBN
-
978-3-95729-653-5
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper ; No. 46/2019
- Classification
-
Wirtschaft
Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
Empirical Studies of Trade
- Subject
-
tariffs
US imports
trade diversion
product-level data
difference-in-differences
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Meinen, Philipp
Schulte, Patrick
Cigna, Simone
Steinhoff, Nils
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Deutsche Bundesbank
- (where)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (when)
-
2019
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET
Data provider
This object is provided by:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Meinen, Philipp
- Schulte, Patrick
- Cigna, Simone
- Steinhoff, Nils
- Deutsche Bundesbank
Time of origin
- 2019
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