Arbeitspapier

On the Non-Optimality of Information: An Analysis of the Welfare Effects of Anticipated Shocks in the New Keynesian Model

This paper compares the welfare effects of anticipated and unanticipated cost-push shocks in the canonical New Keynesian model with optimal monetary policy. We find that, for empirically plausible degrees of nominal rigidity, the anticipation of a future cost-push shock leads to a higher welfare loss than an unanticipated shock. A welfare gain from the anticipation of a future cost shock may only occur if prices are sufficiently flexible. We analytically show that this surprising result holds although unanticipated shocks lead to higher negative impact effects on welfare than anticipated shocks.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Economics Working Paper ; No. 2008-21

Classification
Wirtschaft
Monetary Policy
Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Subject
Anticipated Shocks
Optimal Monetary Policy
Sticky Prices
Welfare Analysis
Kosten
Schock
Erwartungstheorie
Geldpolitik
Preisrigidität
Wohlfahrtseffekt
Theorie

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Wohltmann, Hans-Werner
Winkler, Roland C.
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Kiel University, Department of Economics
(where)
Kiel
(when)
2008

Handle
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Wohltmann, Hans-Werner
  • Winkler, Roland C.
  • Kiel University, Department of Economics

Time of origin

  • 2008

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