Arbeitspapier

Inflationary household uncertainty shocks

I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks do not universally behave like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty shocks are largely inflationary in Europe. Further analysis, including a comparison of results across countries, suggest that factors related to average markups along with monetary policy play a role in the transmission of household uncertainty to inflation. These results lend support to a pricing bias mechanism as an important transmission channel.

ISBN
978-952-323-402-4
Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers ; No. 5/2022

Classification
Wirtschaft
Expectations; Speculations
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data)
Monetary Policy
Macro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy‡
Subject
uncertainty
inflation
surveys of expectations

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Ambrocio, Gene
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
Bank of Finland
(where)
Helsinki
(when)
2022

Handle
URN
urn:nbn:fi:bof-202202141057
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Ambrocio, Gene
  • Bank of Finland

Time of origin

  • 2022

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