Arbeitspapier
The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks
This study provides estimates of the real effects of macro-uncertainty de- composed into fundamental and overconfidence bias components. Crucially, overconfidence biases lower ex-ante measures of uncertainty, while fundamen- tal uncertainty raises both ex-ante and ex-post measures. This distinction is useful since the estimates on the real effects of the overconfidence component of uncertainty mitigate endogeneity concerns. I first document evidence for overconfidence biases from survey density forecasts in the US survey of pro- fessional forecasters. Then, using a sign and zero restrictions identification scheme in a vector autoregression (VAR), I find that increases in fundamental uncertainty and declines in overconfidence tend to lower real activity.
- ISBN
-
978-952-323-204-4
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers ; No. 37/2017
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
Expectations; Speculations
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Ambrocio, Gene
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Bank of Finland
- (wo)
-
Helsinki
- (wann)
-
2017
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 10:45 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Ambrocio, Gene
- Bank of Finland
Entstanden
- 2017
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