Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States: New Data for Business Cycle Analyses and Long-Run Dynamics

Arbeitspapier

To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states. In this paper, we calculate quarterly regional GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2021, thereby improving the regional database for Germany. The new data set will regularly be updated when quarterly economic growth for Germany becomes available. We use the new data for an in-depth business cycle analysis and to estimate long-run growth dynamics. The business cycle analysis reveals large heterogeneities in the duration and amplitudes of state-specific fluctuations as well as in the degrees of cyclical concordance. Long-run trends are found to vary tremendously, with positive developments in economically strong regions and flat or even negative trends for economically much weaker states.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 10280

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
• Subject: regional economic activity ; mixed-frequency Vector Autoregression ; regional business cycles ; concordance ; Bayesian methods

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Lehmann, Robert ; Wikman, Ida
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (where): Munich
• (when): 2023

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/271924
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET