READ-GER: Introducing German Real-Time Regional Accounts Data for Revision Analysis and Nowcasting

Arbeitspapier

Accurate real-time macroeconomic data are essential for policy-making and economic nowcasting. In this paper, I introduce a real-time database for German regional economic accounts (READ-GER). The database contains real-time information for nine macroeconomic aggregates and the 16 German states. I conduct both a revision analysis and a nowcasting experiment. Whereas the first estimates show no systematic revision errors by pooling the states together, this procedure suppresses the revision characteristics of single states. For half of the 16 German states I find that the first estimates are no optimal predictions, thus, leaving room for improvements in the future. The real-time nowcasts for real gross domestic product growth based on a mixed-frequency Vector Autoregression are very accurate, beat several benchmark models and are as precise or better as the first official estimates. More regional data would help to further increase the model's nowcast performance and thus its properties for the first estimates from regional accounts.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: CESifo Working Paper ; No. 10315

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access ; Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
• Thema: regional economic nowcasting ; revision analysis ; mixed-frequency Vector Autoregression ; real-time regional accounts

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Lehmann, Robert
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
• (wo): Munich
• (wann): 2023

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/271959
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ