Arbeitspapier

Transparency, expectations, and forecasts

In 1994, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began to release statements after each meeting. This paper investigates whether the public’s views about the current path of the economy and of future policy have been affected by changes in the Federal Reserve’s communications policy as reflected in private sector’s forecasts of future economic conditions and policy moves. In particular, has the ability of private agents to predict where the economy is going improved since 1994? If so, on which dimensions has the ability to forecast improved? We find evidence that the individuals’ forecasts have been more synchronized since 1994, implying the possible effects of the FOMC’s transparency. On the other hand, we find little evidence that the common forecast errors, which are the driving force of overall forecast errors, have become smaller since 1994.

Sprache
Englisch

Erschienen in
Series: Working Paper ; No. 2006-03

Klassifikation
Wirtschaft
Thema
Geldpolitik
Staatliche Information
Konjunkturprognose
USA

Ereignis
Geistige Schöpfung
(wer)
Bauer, Andrew
Eisenbeis, Robert A.
Waggoner, Daniel F.
Zha, Tao
Ereignis
Veröffentlichung
(wer)
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
(wo)
Atlanta, GA
(wann)
2006

Handle
Letzte Aktualisierung
10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ

Datenpartner

Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.

Objekttyp

  • Arbeitspapier

Beteiligte

  • Bauer, Andrew
  • Eisenbeis, Robert A.
  • Waggoner, Daniel F.
  • Zha, Tao
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Entstanden

  • 2006

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