Does central bank transparency and communication affect financial and macroeconomic forecasts?

Arbeitspapier

In a large sample of countries across different geographic regions and over a long period of time, we find limited country- and variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large set of professional forecasts of financial and macroeconomic variables. More communication even increases forecast errors and dispersion.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: WWZ Working Paper ; No. 2018/06

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Panel Data Models; Spatio-temporal Models ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Central Banks and Their Policies
• Subject: central bank transparency ; central bank communication ; central bank independence ; inflation targeting ; forward guidance ; macroeconomic forecasts ; financial forecasts ; panel data models with truncated data

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Lustenberger, Thomas ; Rossi, Enzo
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): University of Basel, Center of Business and Economics (WWZ)
• (where): Basel
• (when): 2018

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.5451/unibas-ep61496
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/185808
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:45 AM CET