Arbeitspapier
The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts
There is a broad consensus in the literature that costs of information processing and acquisition may generate costly disagreements in expectations among economic agents, and that central banks may play a central role in reducing such dispersion in expectations. This paper analyses empirically whether enhanced central bank transparency lowers dispersion among professional forecasters of key economic variables, using a large set of proxies for central bank transparency in 12 advanced economies. It finds evidence for a significant and sizeable effect of central bank transparency on forecast dispersion, be it by means of announcing a quantified inflation objective, other forms of communication, or by publishing central banks’ inflation and output forecasts. However, there also appear to be limits to central bank transparency, with decreasing marginal returns to enhancing (economic) transparency, and given our findings that disagreement among inflation expectations in the general public is not affected by the various central bank transparency measures analyzed in this paper.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 1146
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Monetary Policy
Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
- Thema
-
central bank communication
central banking
disagreement
forecasting
inflation targeting
monetary policy
survey expectations
transparency
Informationskosten
Wirtschaftsprognose
Zentralbank
Geldpolitik
Inflationssteuerung
Ankündigungseffekt
Industrieländer
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Ehrmann, Michael
Eijffinger, Sylvester
Fratzscher, Marcel
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
European Central Bank (ECB)
- (wo)
-
Frankfurt a. M.
- (wann)
-
2010
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:41 MEZ
Datenpartner
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Ehrmann, Michael
- Eijffinger, Sylvester
- Fratzscher, Marcel
- European Central Bank (ECB)
Entstanden
- 2010
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