Arbeitspapier
Conditional probabilistic population forecasting
Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them to answer "what if" type questions properly when outcomes are uncertain. The second is a new category that we call "future jump-off date forecasts". Future jump-off date forecasts are valuable because they show policy-makers the likelihood that crucial features of today's forecasts will also be present in forecasts made in the future.
- Language
-
Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
-
Series: Vienna Institute of Demography Working Papers ; No. 03/2003
- Classification
-
Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie, Anthropologie
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Sanderson, Warren
Scherbov, Sergei
O'Neill, Brian
Lutz, Wolfgang
- Event
-
Veröffentlichung
- (who)
-
Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID)
- (where)
-
Vienna
- (when)
-
2003
- Handle
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Sanderson, Warren
- Scherbov, Sergei
- O'Neill, Brian
- Lutz, Wolfgang
- Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID)
Time of origin
- 2003
Other Objects (12)
A probabilistic cohort-component model for population forecasting: The case of Germany
Conditional Forecasting with DSGE Models - a Conditional Copula Approach
Conditional density forecasting: A tempered importance sampling approach
Probabilistic forecasting of thunderstorms in the Eastern Alps
Distributional regression forests for probabilistic precipitation forecasting in complex terrain
Population forecasting with the Box-Jenkins approach
A multivariate perspective for modelling and forecasting inflation's conditional mean and variance
Forecasting labour supply and population: An integrated stochastic model
Probabilistic conditional independence structures
The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India
Conditional Corruption
Probabilistic aging
A probabilistic cohort-component model for population forecasting: The case of Germany
Conditional Forecasting with DSGE Models - a Conditional Copula Approach
Conditional density forecasting: A tempered importance sampling approach
Probabilistic forecasting of thunderstorms in the Eastern Alps
Distributional regression forests for probabilistic precipitation forecasting in complex terrain
Population forecasting with the Box-Jenkins approach
A multivariate perspective for modelling and forecasting inflation's conditional mean and variance
Forecasting labour supply and population: An integrated stochastic model
Probabilistic conditional independence structures
The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India
Conditional Corruption
Probabilistic aging
A probabilistic cohort-component model for population forecasting: The case of Germany
Conditional Forecasting with DSGE Models - a Conditional Copula Approach
Conditional density forecasting: A tempered importance sampling approach
Probabilistic forecasting of thunderstorms in the Eastern Alps
Distributional regression forests for probabilistic precipitation forecasting in complex terrain
Population forecasting with the Box-Jenkins approach
A multivariate perspective for modelling and forecasting inflation's conditional mean and variance
Forecasting labour supply and population: An integrated stochastic model
Probabilistic conditional independence structures
The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India
Conditional Corruption