Information or Institution? – On the Determinants of Forecast Accuracy

Arbeitspapier

The accuracy of macroeconomic forecast depends on various factors, most importantly the mix of analytical methods used by the individual forecasters, the way that their personal experience is shaping their identification strategies, but also their efficiency in translating new information into revised forecasts. In this paper we use a broad sample of forecasts of German GDP and its components to analyze the impact of institutions and information on forecast accuracy. We find that forecast errors are a linear function of the forecast horizon. This result is robust over a variety of different specifications. As better information seems to be the key to achieving better forecasts, approaches for acquiring reliable information early seem to be a good investment. By contrast, the institutional factors tend to be small and statistically insignificant. It has to remain open, whether this is the consequence of the efficiency-enhancing competition among German research institutions or rather the reflection of an abundance of forecast suppliers.

Angaben zum Objekt

• ISBN: 978-3-86788-228-6
• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Ruhr Economic Papers ; No. 201

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
• Thema: forecast accuracy ; forecast revisions ; forecast horizon ; economic activity

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Döhrn, Roland ; Schmidt, Christoph M.
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI)
• (wo): Essen
• (wann): 2010

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/45323
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:43 MEZ