Arbeitspapier
Biased forecasts to affect voting decisions? The Brexit case
This paper introduces macroeconomic forecasters as political agents and suggests that they use their forecasts to in uence voting outcomes. We develop a probabilistic voting model in which voters do not have complete information about the future states of the economy and have to rely on macroeconomic forecasters. The model predicts that it is optimal for forecasters with economic interest (stakes) and in uence to publish biased forecasts prior to a referendum. We test our theory using high-frequency data at the forecaster level surrounding the Brexit referendum. The results show that forecasters with stakes and in uence released much more pessimistic estimates for GDP growth in the following year than other forecasters. Actual GDP growth rate in 2017 shows that forecasters with stakes and in uence were also more incorrect than other institutions and the propaganda bias explains up to 50 percent of their forecast error.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 2019:4
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General
- Thema
-
Brexit
Interest Groups
Forecasters Behavior
Voting
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Cipullo, Davide
Reslow, André
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
Uppsala University, Department of Economics
- (wo)
-
Uppsala
- (wann)
-
2019
- Handle
- URN
-
urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-379226
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:42 MEZ
Datenpartner
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Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Cipullo, Davide
- Reslow, André
- Uppsala University, Department of Economics
Entstanden
- 2019