Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Konferenzbeitrag

We analyze the determinants of average individual inflation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of inflation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic conditions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations differ qualitatively. In particular, average individual inflation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2016: Demographischer Wandel - Session: Inflation ; No. D16-V3

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Monetary Policy ; Central Banks and Their Policies

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Glas, Alexander ; Hartmann, Matthias
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
• (where): Kiel und Hamburg
• (when): 2016

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/145888
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:44 AM CET