Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries

Arbeitspapier

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest rate). Disagreement about real variables intensifies strongly during recessions, including the current one (by about 40 percent in terms of the interquartile range). Disagreement about nominal variables rises with their level, has fallen after 1998 or so (by 30 percent), and is considerably lower under independent central banks (by 35 percent). Cross-sectional dispersion for both groups increases with uncertainty about the underlying actual indicators, though to a lesser extent for nominal series. Country-by-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and its sensitivity to macroeconomic variables tend to be larger in Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom, where central banks became independent only around the mid-1990s. These findings suggest that more credible monetary policy can substantially contribute to anchoring of expectations about nominal variables; its effects on disagreement about real variables are moderate.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: ECB Working Paper ; No. 1082

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation ; Business Fluctuations; Cycles ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Monetary Policy ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods
• Subject: disagreement ; forecasting ; monetary policy ; survey expectations ; Prognoseverfahren ; Wirtschaftsindikator ; Geldpolitik ; Inflationserwartung ; Zins ; Regressionsanalyse ; G7-Staaten

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Dovern, Jonas ; Fritsche, Ulrich ; Slacalek, Jiri
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): European Central Bank (ECB)
• (where): Frankfurt a. M.
• (when): 2009

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/153516
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET