Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel

Konferenzbeitrag

We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) for describing the dynamics of professional growth forecasts. Instead, the empirical evidence is more in line with implications of "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003). Second, we find that information rigidities are more pronounced in emerging economies than advanced economies. Third, there is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution.

Angaben zum Objekt

• Sprache: Englisch

Verweise und Beziehungen

• Erschienen in: Series: Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2013: Wettbewerbspolitik und Regulierung in einer globalen Wirtschaftsordnung - Session: Information Rigidities and Expectation Formation ; No. G15-V2

Klassifikation und Themen

• Klassifikation: Wirtschaft ; Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• Thema: forecast ; economic ; information ; expectations

Beteiligte, Orts- und Zeitangaben

• Ereignis: Geistige Schöpfung
• (wer): Dovern, Jonas ; Fritsche, Ulrich ; Loungani, Prakash ; Tamirisa, Natalia
• Ereignis: Veröffentlichung
• (wer): ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
• (wo): Kiel und Hamburg
• (wann): 2013

Weitere Informationen

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/79936
• Letzte Aktualisierung: 10.03.2025, 11:45 MEZ