Arbeitspapier
Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
We analyze the determinants of average individual inflation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of inflation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic conditions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations differ qualitatively. In particular, average individual inflation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods.
- Language
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Englisch
- Bibliographic citation
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Series: Discussion Paper Series ; No. 612
- Classification
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Wirtschaft
- Subject
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Inflation uncertainty
Disagreement
Density forecast
Central banking
Survey of Professional Forecasters
Inflation
Inflationserwartung
Geldpolitik
Wirtschaftsprognose
EU-Staaten
- Event
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (who)
-
Glas, Alexander
Hartmann, Matthias
- Event
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Veröffentlichung
- (who)
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University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
- (where)
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Heidelberg
- (when)
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2016
- DOI
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doi:10.11588/heidok.00020434
- Handle
- URN
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urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-204344
- Last update
-
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET
Data provider
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. If you have any questions about the object, please contact the data provider.
Object type
- Arbeitspapier
Associated
- Glas, Alexander
- Hartmann, Matthias
- University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
Time of origin
- 2016