Arbeitspapier

Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

We analyze the determinants of average individual inflation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of inflation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic conditions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations differ qualitatively. In particular, average individual inflation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods.

Language
Englisch

Bibliographic citation
Series: Discussion Paper Series ; No. 612

Classification
Wirtschaft
Subject
Inflation uncertainty
Disagreement
Density forecast
Central banking
Survey of Professional Forecasters
Inflation
Inflationserwartung
Geldpolitik
Wirtschaftsprognose
EU-Staaten

Event
Geistige Schöpfung
(who)
Glas, Alexander
Hartmann, Matthias
Event
Veröffentlichung
(who)
University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
(where)
Heidelberg
(when)
2016

DOI
doi:10.11588/heidok.00020434
Handle
URN
urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-204344
Last update
10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET

Data provider

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Object type

  • Arbeitspapier

Associated

  • Glas, Alexander
  • Hartmann, Matthias
  • University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics

Time of origin

  • 2016

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