Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Arbeitspapier

We analyze the determinants of average individual inflation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of inflation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic conditions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations differ qualitatively. In particular, average individual inflation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods.

Object Details

• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Discussion Paper Series ; No. 612

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft
• Subject: Inflation uncertainty ; Disagreement ; Density forecast ; Central banking ; Survey of Professional Forecasters ; Inflation ; Inflationserwartung ; Geldpolitik ; Wirtschaftsprognose ; EU-Staaten

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Glas, Alexander ; Hartmann, Matthias
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics
• (where): Heidelberg
• (when): 2016

Further information

• DOI: doi:10.11588/heidok.00020434
• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/162955
• URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-204344
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:43 AM CET