How informative are aggregated inflation expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Arbeitspapier

This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel composition. First, we compare two sub-groups of survey respondents divided on the basis of forecast accuracy. Then, we examine possible differences between regular and irregular forecasters. Finally, we assess the relevance of aggregated forecast revisions in the unbalanced panel by constructing alternative forecast revisions based on the set of sub-panels of fixed composition. The results show that, because of heterogeneity across individual views, aggregated inflation expectations in the ECB SPF must be analysed also on a micro level.

Object Details

• ISBN: 978-952-323-111-5
• Language: Englisch

References and Relationships

• Bibliographic citation: Series: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers ; No. 15/2016

Classification and Topics

• Classification: Wirtschaft ; Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods ; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications ; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

Contributors, Places and Time

• Event: Geistige Schöpfung
• (who): Oinonen, Sami ; Paloviita, Maritta
• Event: Veröffentlichung
• (who): Bank of Finland
• (where): Helsinki
• (when): 2016

Further information

• Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/212353
• Last update: 10.03.2025, 11:42 AM CET