Arbeitspapier
Macroeconomic expectations of households amd professional forecasters
Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households' views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters which in turn may be rational The model's estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports; this inattention generates stickyness in aggregate expectations with important macroeconomic consequences.
- Sprache
-
Englisch
- Erschienen in
-
Series: Working Paper ; No. 477
- Klassifikation
-
Wirtschaft
Expectations; Speculations
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- Thema
-
inflation
expectations
unemployment
monetary policy
Erwartungstheorie
Inflationserwartung
Arbeitslosigkeit
Schätzung
USA
- Ereignis
-
Geistige Schöpfung
- (wer)
-
Carroll, Christopher D.
- Ereignis
-
Veröffentlichung
- (wer)
-
The Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics
- (wo)
-
Baltimore, MD
- (wann)
-
2002
- Handle
- Letzte Aktualisierung
-
10.03.2025, 11:44 MEZ
Datenpartner
Dieses Objekt wird bereitgestellt von:
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft. Bei Fragen zum Objekt wenden Sie sich bitte an den Datenpartner.
Objekttyp
- Arbeitspapier
Beteiligte
- Carroll, Christopher D.
- The Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics
Entstanden
- 2002
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